Iran has failed and continues to fail, but holds on to the last thread of hope by trying to close the Strait. The result is that the oil-producing countries are working on pipelines and alternative methods of transport. While some of this might take time, it will, in the end, stop Iran from using the Strait of Hormuz as a weapon.
Trump has an issue on his hands because these radicals are hanging on and shooting a missile here and there to disrupt the area. I don’t have the answer, but we need to end this war quickly, but that may very well be a dream for now. I’ll give credit to Trump for taking this on, and who knows what power Iran would hold if we did not act. It was the right thing to do, and history will show this as a success for the world.
For the here and now, we need to hang on and support this effort because the progressives will not, which would allow Iran to become nuclear. Does anyone think that is a good idea? I think not, except for terrorists around the world. American patience is wearing thin, so the quicker we end this war, the better for everyone. All IMO.
“The new pathways could become permanent and reshape how the Gulf region exports crude.
Efforts to re-route oil can be arduous, however, and attempts to rebuild or resuscitate old pipelines will take time.
“Gulf Arab oil producers are seeking to diversify their export options to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, but they face a capacity issue,” said Gordon Gray, a former U.S. ambassador to Tunisia and professor of Gulf and Arabian Peninsula affairs at George Washington University. “Alternate routes can only make up half of the estimated 20 million barrels that used to pass through the Strait of Hormuz on a daily basis,” he said.
Tehran in March severely curtailed commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow channel between Iran and Oman, in retaliation for U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that began on Feb. 28.
Vessels have to navigate possible mines in the strait and sporadic attacks, making the passage perilous and causing a global energy shortfall that resulted in higher oil prices.
Prewar flows of oil through the Strait of Hormuz accounted for about 20% of global consumption. Disruptions in the strait have curtailed shipments to less than half of preconflict levels, with daily fluctuations depending on the threat level in the waterway.
Gulf nations are tapping into alternatives, including pipelines that flow away from the strait toward other ports.
Saudi Arabia is exporting oil through Yanbu, a port on the Red Sea, while the United Arab Emirates is using its terminals in Fujairah, an emirate on the Gulf of Oman beyond the Strait of Hormuz.
Earlier this summer, the Iraqi government approved preliminary deals between the Basra Oil Co. and a U.S. consortium that involves Chevron to explore ways to revive the Haditha-Baniyas pipeline corridor connecting Iraq’s oil network and Mediterranean ports in Syria.
“Iran’s persistent harassment of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz has led oil companies and regional producers to adapt, develop, and, in some cases, expand alternative routes,” said Caleb Jasso, a senior policy adviser at the Institute for Energy Research. “Continued conflict in the region, particularly as ships are targeted while transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, will further increase interest in, and the necessity to, develop and expand alternative pipeline networks to get the region’s oil to the global market.”
The projects face near-term and long-term challenges. The UAE is working around the clock to double its output from Fujairah by 2027, and reviving the Iraq-Syria route could take up to four years.
Further, Red Sea ports such as Yanbu face potential attacks and disruptions by the Iran-backed Houthis, an anti-Saudi faction in Yemen.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright this month said there have been signs of improvement.
He said U.S. military actions were improving flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and pipeline efforts were nearly closing the remaining shortfall.
“When combined with the additional 5-7 million barrels per day leaving the region via newly upgraded pipelines and export facilities, total oil flows are currently averaging approximately 15 million barrels per day,” Mr. Wright said Aug. 11 on X.
Some experts were skeptical, given ongoing attacks and reports of sluggish traffic in the strait that remains far below prewar levels.
The U.S. Navy is maintaining a heavy presence in the Strait of Hormuz and directing traffic, resulting in an undisclosed amount of oil flow that might be known to Mr. Wright and the military, though not the general public.
As a result, Mr. Wright’s estimate “may not be far off,” said Joel Rayburn, a senior fellow at the Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East within the Hudson Institute, a Washington-based think tank.
“Certainly in the range of 12 to 13 [million barrels per day] would, I think, be plausible,” Mr. Rayburn said.”